Many of us have asked ourselves this question over and over again.
There are a few ways I can answer, but let me first point out the underlying attitude.
Asking yourself how long you're going to suck reveals your true goal as an artist. You're not focusing on the joy of the creative process. You're not approaching your art with curiosity. You're caught up in the results of making art instead of the process of making art.
I would therefore advise you to view all failures as experiments instead of evidence of your incompetence. When an experiment goes wrong you don't blame yourself. You take what you've learned and formulate another experiment. Art as science. Art as fun.
Self-reproach and fulfillment don't hold hands.
To ask yourself how long you will suck is to compare yourself. I can't tell you that comparing yourself to others is a waste of time. You can learn a lot by comparing your work to the work of others. I
can tell you that comparing yourself to others as an indicator of your value is useless. As a matter of fact, I could tell you that all day. You're probably not going to really understand. You may never understand. But maybe - just maybe - one day that little nugget of wisdom will sink down into your gray matter and you'll truly believe that questioning your value because of your competence is a total waste of time - and you'll stop doing it. It's not helpful or useful. Drop it.
If you practice a lot you will get better. I don't know how long it's going to take you or how good you'll get, but if you want to get better, and you're willing to invest a little time and brainpower into the process, you
will get better. I'm talking about years. Keep practicing for years.
Is that a bummer? Someone once told me that the time is going to pass no matter what you do. You might as well get good at something along the way. Sounds right to me.
Don't try to be the best in the world. That's almost certainly not going to happen. There are too many other talented and smart people out there. But, like
Seth Godin tells us, try to add value to
your world, whatever that may be. Be an asset to your team, club, friend group...whatever.
My goal - and I think it's a worthy one - is to get really good at adding value to the world. My goal is to approach my art with curiosity and energy. I want to enjoy the journey while making a dent in the universe.
When you make art with a mindset like that, the question "how long will I suck" becomes meaningless because it distracts from my goals. Who cares how long I take to improve? I'm using what I have to add value to the world and I'm enjoying the journey. Worrying about my competence doesn't make me better or happier. It doesn't help at all. Worries usually don't.